This news broadcast covers several developing international situations. It reports on escalating tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran concerning Iran’s nuclear program, including the deployment of US B-52 bombers to the Middle East and diplomatic efforts involving Saudi Arabia. The broadcast also examines internal and external issues facing Lebanon’s new government, especially regarding Hezbollah’s influence and the country’s relationship with Syria and other countries. Finally, it addresses upcoming US-Russia talks on the war in Ukraine without Ukraine’s participation, sparking concerns among European leaders and Zelensky about transatlantic relations. The tone is one of analysis, reporting on potential negotiations, possible military actions, and shifting political landscapes. Several experts are interviewed to provide insight on the issues.

Middle East Tensions and Geopolitical Shifts: A Study Guide

Quiz

Answer each question in 2-3 sentences.

1. What was the significance of the B-52H bomber flight data and where were they headed?
2. What conditions did the US, represented by Rubio and Trump’s advisor Wallace, set for negotiations with the Islamic Republic?
3. What role is Saudi Arabia willing to play in the potential negotiations between the United States and the Islamic Republic?
4. According to Hossein Aghaei, what are the two options being discussed in relation to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities, and which one is more likely?
5. What are the contradictory reports about the protests in Dehdasht, Iran, and what do they suggest about the government’s approach?
6. What are the criticisms levied against Prince Reza Pahlavi regarding the composition of his close associates and his claim to leadership?
7. What is the Lebanese government trying to achieve by excluding Hezbollah from the cabinet?
8. What specific actions has the Lebanese government taken to reduce Hezbollah’s influence?
9. What are the reasons behind the ban on flights to Beirut International Airport, and how does this affect Hezbollah’s operations?
10. What is Zelensky’s reaction to the US-Russia negotiations on the war in Ukraine without Ukraine’s presence?

Quiz Answer Key

1. The flight data of two US Air Force B-52H bombers showed their departure from the UK towards the Middle East, emphasizing the seriousness of the US’s stance amid heightened tensions with the Islamic Republic. This flight suggests a show of force and potential military readiness in the region, particularly in light of ongoing nuclear debates.
2. The US set the condition that the Islamic Republic must completely dismantle its nuclear program, including reducing centrifuges and stopping uranium enrichment, as a prerequisite for any negotiations to begin. These demands reflect the US’s firm stance against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions and its commitment to preventing nuclear proliferation.
3. Saudi Arabia has offered to mediate between the United States and the Islamic Republic in order to facilitate negotiations, which is a new phenomenon compared to the Obama era. This willingness indicates Saudi Arabia’s desire to play a more active role in regional diplomacy and security.
4. According to Hossein Aghaei, the two options being discussed are negotiations and an attack on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities. He believes that military pressure and serious threats are more likely if the Islamic Republic does not quickly make concessions sought by the US.
5. There are contradictory reports about the protests in Dehdasht, with the IRGC Intelligence Organization reporting the arrest of protest leaders for sabotage, while the provincial police chief denies the protests ever occurred. These contradictory reports indicate an attempt by the government to downplay the significance of the protests and suppress dissent while controlling the narrative.
6. Criticisms against Prince Reza Pahlavi include concerns about the lack of diversity among his close associates, who primarily represent a specific political spectrum. He is also criticized for claiming leadership of the transition period without broader recognition from other political parties or opposition groups.
7. By excluding Hezbollah from the cabinet, the Lebanese government is trying to reduce the group’s influence to the lowest possible level. This action is aimed at weakening Hezbollah’s political power and limiting its ability to veto important government decisions.
8. The Lebanese government’s actions include electing a president and prime minister who are not aligned with Hezbollah, forming a cabinet without Hezbollah members, and supporting the ban on flights to Beirut International Airport, which were allegedly used to transport money and weapons to Hezbollah. These moves are aimed at diminishing Hezbollah’s political power and operational capabilities.
9. The ban on flights to Beirut International Airport is due to concerns that these flights were carrying large amounts of money and potentially weapons to Hezbollah. This ban is intended to cut off a crucial supply route for Hezbollah, hindering its ability to rebuild and resume operations.
10. Zelensky has stated that Ukraine does not recognize the US-Russia negotiations, highlighting Ukraine’s opposition to being excluded from discussions about its own future and security. This reaction underscores Ukraine’s insistence on being a central participant in any diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.

Essay Questions

1. Analyze the strategic implications of the US military presence in the Middle East, considering the flight of the B-52H bombers and the potential for either negotiation or military action against the Islamic Republic.
2. Assess the impact of Saudi Arabia’s willingness to mediate between the United States and the Islamic Republic on regional power dynamics and the prospects for diplomatic resolution.
3. Discuss the significance of the protests in Dehdasht, Iran, and the conflicting reports surrounding them, in the context of broader domestic challenges facing the Islamic Republic.
4. Evaluate the potential for a new, independent Shiite movement to emerge in Lebanon, considering the current government’s efforts to reduce Hezbollah’s influence and separate the Shiite population from the group.
5. Examine the implications of the US-Russia negotiations on the war in Ukraine, particularly in light of Zelensky’s opposition and the potential reshaping of transatlantic relations.

Glossary of Key Terms

• B-52H Bombers: Long-range, heavy bomber aircraft used by the United States Air Force, capable of carrying a wide array of munitions, including nuclear weapons.
• JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action): An international agreement on the nuclear program of Iran reached in Vienna on 14 July 2015 between Iran, the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States—plus Germany), and the European Union.
• Islamic Republic: A term referring to the government of Iran, which is based on Islamic principles and law.
• Hezbollah: A Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militant group, heavily supported by Iran.
• Centrifuges: Devices used to enrich uranium for nuclear fuel or weapons.
• Uranium Enrichment: The process of increasing the concentration of the isotope Uranium-235 in natural uranium to produce fuel for nuclear reactors or material for nuclear weapons.
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): A branch of the Iranian Armed Forces, separate from the regular army, tasked with protecting the country’s Islamic system.
• Rafik Hariri Airport: The main international airport in Beirut, Lebanon.
• Shiite Movement: A branch of Islam whose adherents believe that the leadership of the Muslim world should be passed down through the direct descendants of Muhammad.
• Transatlantic Relations: The political, economic, and cultural relations between North America and Europe.
• Rastakhiz Party: A former political party in Iran, founded by Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1975.
• SAVAK: The secret police, domestic security and intelligence service in Iran during the reign of the Pahlavi dynasty.
• Liberal Democrat: A political ideology combining liberal politics with a more overt commitment to social justice.
• Reformists: Individuals or groups advocating for gradual change and improvement in a political or social system.
• Fundamentalist: A strict adherence to the basic principles of any subject or discipline.
• Monarchists: Individuals or groups who support a system of government headed by a monarch.
• Republicans: Individuals or groups advocating for a form of government in which the head of state is not a monarch, typically an elected president.
• Constituent Assembly: A body or assembly of popularly elected delegates which is assembled for the purpose of drafting or adopting a constitution or similar document.
• Deterrence: The action of discouraging an action or event through instilling doubt or fear of the consequences.
• Decline Factor: Internal conditions and trends that can weaken or undermine the stability and power of a state or regime.
• Strategic Point: A location or position of military or political importance.

Middle East Geopolitics and US-Russia Negotiations Analysis

Okay, here’s a detailed briefing document summarizing the key themes and ideas from the provided text.

Briefing Document: Analysis of News Headlines

Date: October 26, 2023 (based on the Monday, February 29th, reference) Subject: Analysis of Geopolitical Tensions and Domestic Unrest in Iran and the Middle East.

Executive Summary:

This document analyzes a series of news headlines and discussions covering escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, domestic unrest in Iran, political maneuvering surrounding Prince Reza Pahlavi, and the complex situation in Lebanon, as well as US-Russia talks on Ukraine. The overarching themes are: the increasing possibility of confrontation between Iran and its adversaries, internal dissent within Iran, shifting alliances in the Middle East, and the potential for a new geopolitical order.

Key Themes and Ideas:

1. Escalating US-Iran Tensions and Nuclear Concerns:

• Threat of Military Action: The deployment of US B-52 bombers to the Middle East, coupled with statements from US and Israeli officials, suggests a heightened threat of military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities. “Two US Air Force B-52H bombers departed from the UK’s Fay Ford Air Base, accompanied by at least 4 tanker aircraft, and crossed the Mediterranean Sea towards the Middle East.” Mark Rubio and Netanyahu “emphasized that they will not allow Tehran to obtain nuclear weapons.”
• Preconditions for Negotiation: The US is setting strict preconditions for negotiations with Iran, including the complete dismantling of its nuclear program. “Mr. Wallace has raised the point that the Islamic Republic must put aside its entire nuclear program… Mr. Rubio… believes that the Islamic Republic must put aside all of its nuclear ambitions altogether, and this could be a prelude to starting negotiations with the Islamic Republic.”
• Iranian Defiance: Iranian officials are publicly dismissing the threats and asserting their defensive capabilities, though some analysts believe this is primarily for domestic consumption. “The Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, also said in a speech that our issue is not a hardware or defense threat, and there is no problem in this regard.” One analyst stated that the Iranian Leaders view that the “Islamic Republic has absolutely no problems in terms of defense capabilities… are primarily misleading, incorrect, contrary to the facts on the ground.”
• Saudi Mediation: Saudi Arabia is offering to mediate between the US and Iran, indicating a potential shift in regional dynamics and a desire to de-escalate tensions. “Riyadh and Saudi Arabia are willing to mediate between the United States and the Islamic Republic in order for negotiations to take place.”
• Diplomatic Window: The “diplomatic window” for negotiations is considered very limited and that increased military pressure is being considered. “The diplomatic window that Trump has opened will be very, very limited. I think that the maximum will be this summer at best, and it may not even reach that time.”

2. Internal Unrest and Political Division in Iran:

• Protests in Dehdasht: Reports of protests in Dehdasht, Iran, are met with contradictory official responses, with some sources denying the protests occurred and others reporting arrests of protest leaders. “Contradictory statements about the Dehdasht protest rallies continue, while the Kohgilu police commander has completely denied the occurrence of the rally in Dehdasht.”
• Criticism of Leadership and Dissension: Dissension and unrest in the population are creating a “factor of decline” that are creating internal fears within the Republic. “The main source of concern for the Islamic Republic is internal rather than external. They are trying to prevent that collapse factor in some way.”
• Prince Reza Pahlavi’s Role: The role and potential leadership of Prince Reza Pahlavi, is generating discussion, with some moderate groups welcoming his pronouncements and other groups questioning those around him. “Prince Reza Pahlavi’s comments criticizing the slogan ‘King Reza Pahlavi’ not to insult the opposition and not to raise the issue of monarchy or republic at the current stage… More moderate groups are welcoming the talks of Prince Reza Pahlavi.” However, others state that “we don’t see this diversity among his main close associates.”
• Lack of Unified Opposition: The lack of a unified opposition is being criticized, with some arguing that critics of Pahlavi should focus on organizing themselves instead of solely criticizing him. “The time for you to criticize Mr. Pahlavi but not organize yourself… not be able to present an alternative leadership is over.”

3. Lebanon’s Internal and External Challenges:

• Israeli Withdrawal and Hezbollah: Lebanon faces both the issue of Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the need to manage Hezbollah’s influence within the country. The Lebanese government faces external pressures from Israel and internal tensions related to Hezbollah’s power. “The Israeli issue, which is due to withdraw from southern Lebanon tomorrow, coincident with the end of the 60-day ceasefire with Hezbollah.”
• Reduced Hezbollah Influence: The new Lebanese government is attempting to reduce Hezbollah’s influence, including excluding them from cabinet positions, supported by US policy. “The current Lebanese government is trying to reduce Hezbollah’s influence to the lowest possible level.”
• Saudi Support for Lebanese Government: Saudi Arabia’s support for the Lebanese government signifies a shift in regional power dynamics and a challenge to Iran’s influence. “Saudi Arabia’s support for the Lebanese government in dealing with the protesters is another sign of the new balance of power in Lebanon, which will not be good news for the Islamic Republic, the party’s main supporter.”
• New Shiite Movement: The possible emergence of a new Shiite movement independent of Hezbollah and Iran is being speculated on. “I think we are witnessing the birth of a new Shiite movement in Lebanon, which is neither Hezbollah nor Amal, a Shiite movement that has learned from and no longer wants to be subordinate to a foreign country.”

4. US-Russia Negotiations on Ukraine:

• Negotiations without Ukraine and Europe: The US is engaging in negotiations with Russia on the war in Ukraine without the direct involvement of Ukraine or European countries, causing concern among those parties. “US Secretary of State Mark Rubio, along with the National Security Advisor and the US Special Envoy for the Middle East, will meet with Russian representatives… Zelensky… said that we do not recognize the US-Russia negotiations.”
• Trump’s Approach: Donald Trump is taking a different approach to the conflict, prioritizing negotiations and potentially seeking a quick resolution, which is causing friction with transatlantic allies. “Mr. Trump is rewriting transatlantic relations, that is, relations between the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean.”
• Potential Outcome: The implications of these negotiations for the future of Ukraine and European security are uncertain. “Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has also confirmed that representatives from the Russian Federation are going to be present. This will be the first stage, so that the two sides can sit down and work out their differences.”

Conclusion:

The news headlines paint a picture of a volatile and uncertain geopolitical landscape. The potential for conflict in the Middle East, coupled with internal challenges within Iran and shifting alliances, highlights the need for careful diplomacy and strategic planning. The US-Russia negotiations on Ukraine also point to a potential reshaping of the international order. These developments will require close monitoring and analysis in the coming weeks.

US, Iran, and Middle East Tensions: Analysis and Developments

FAQ

• What is the significance of the US Air Force B-52H bombers being deployed to the Middle East? The deployment of B-52H bombers to the Middle East, especially following threats from Rubio and Netanyahu against Iran, is a significant show of force and a signal of the US and Israel’s determination to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. It suggests a potential escalation of tensions and a readiness to consider military options, although it could also be interpreted as a deterrent intended to bring Iran to the negotiating table.
• What are the preconditions for negotiations between the US and Iran, according to US officials? According to remarks attributed to Mr. Wallace, Trump’s National Security Advisor, and US Secretary of State Rubio, a key precondition for negotiations between the US and Iran is that Iran must completely dismantle its nuclear program, including ceasing uranium enrichment and reducing its centrifuges. This position aligns with Trump’s stated desire for negotiations, but only under stringent conditions.
• What role is Saudi Arabia attempting to play in the US-Iran dynamic? Saudi Arabia has expressed a willingness to mediate between the US and Iran. This marks a shift from the Obama era, where the US did not seek Saudi Arabia’s input on the JCPOA. Saudi Arabia’s involvement suggests a regional desire for de-escalation, but also a preference for a deal that addresses their concerns about Iran’s regional influence and nuclear ambitions.
• What is Ali Khamenei’s response to the increasing pressure and threats from the US and Israel? Ali Khamenei has dismissed concerns about Iran’s defense capabilities, stating that Iran has no problems in this regard and is ready to confront serious threats. However, experts cited in the broadcast suggest that these statements are primarily for domestic consumption and may not accurately reflect the actual situation. The Islamic Republic may be more concerned with internal factors and a potential decline in domestic support.
• What is happening with the protests in Dehdasht, Iran, and how are they being reported? Protests have taken place in Dehdasht, with citizens chanting anti-government slogans. However, the Iranian government’s media approach has been one of denial. While some news agencies affiliated with the IRGC have reported arrests of individuals allegedly planning sabotage, others deny the protests even occurred. This contradictory reporting and the reported use of violence against protesters indicate a sensitive security situation and an effort by the government to suppress dissent and control information.
• What are the different perspectives on Prince Reza Pahlavi’s role and leadership within the Iranian opposition? Prince Reza Pahlavi’s recent comments at a convergence meeting have sparked debate among the Iranian opposition. While some, particularly more moderate groups, welcome his criticisms of extremist rhetoric and calls for unity, others criticize the lack of diversity among his close associates and question his self-proclaimed leadership of the transition period. Some argue that those around him push polarizing views. There are conflicting opinions regarding whether he is a unifying figure or is surrounded by advisors who are too partisan and right-wing.
• What is the situation with Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, and what is Saudi Arabia’s role? The Lebanese government, under President Joseph O’Neill and Prime Minister Nawab Salam, is facing both external pressure from Israel and internal challenges related to Hezbollah’s influence. The new government is trying to reduce Hezbollah’s influence, culminating in a cabinet without Hezbollah members. Saudi Arabia is supporting the Lebanese government, signaling a new balance of power in Lebanon that is unfavorable to Iran, Hezbollah’s main supporter.
• What is the status of US-Russia negotiations on the war in Ukraine, and how are European leaders and Zelensky reacting? The US and Russia are scheduled to hold negotiations in Riyadh regarding the war in Ukraine, without the presence of Kiev or European countries. Zelensky has stated that Ukraine does not recognize these negotiations. European leaders are holding emergency meetings to discuss their response, amidst growing pressure from the US for them to shoulder more of the financial burden of supporting Ukraine. The situation reflects a potential shift in transatlantic relations and concerns about the future of the conflict.

US-Iran Tensions: Nuclear Program, Military Threats, and Negotiations

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are a prominent topic in the news, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence. Here’s a breakdown of the situation:

• Nuclear Ambitions: The U.S., along with Israel, is concerned about Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Both countries have stated they will not allow Iran to obtain them. The U.S. has indicated that negotiations with Iran are contingent on Iran completely halting uranium enrichment and dismantling its centrifuges.
• Military Threats and Deterrence: The U.S. has sent B-52H bombers to the Middle East as a signal of its commitment to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to deter military action. There are discussions about potential military actions against Iran’s nuclear facilities if negotiations fail.
• Iranian Response: Iran maintains that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. Iranian officials have asserted that threats against Iran are a violation of international law and that Israel “cannot do anything wrong”. Iran’s Leader, Ali Khamenei, has stated that the country’s defense capabilities are robust, though some analysts believe this is primarily for domestic consumption to prevent internal dissent.
• Negotiation Prospects: There are talks of potential mediation by Saudi Arabia or Russia between the U.S. and Iran. However, the U.S. conditions for negotiation, which include eliminating all perceived threats from Iran, may be difficult for Iran to accept in a short timeframe. Some analysts believe the window for diplomacy is limited.
• Regional Influence: Iran’s regional influence is also a point of contention. Israel believes Iran is trying to compensate for its reduced regional influence by developing nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Negotiations: US and Iranian Perspectives

Here’s what the sources and our conversation history say about nuclear negotiations and related issues:

• Conditions for Negotiation: The U.S. has indicated that any negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are conditional on Iran’s willingness to significantly reduce its centrifuges and completely stop enriching uranium. The U.S. preconditions also include eliminating all combined threats from the Islamic Republic, with a focus on the nuclear issue.
• U.S. Stance: The U.S., under the Trump administration, is seeking negotiations with Iran but insists that these negotiations will only commence when Iran demonstrates a willingness to curtail its nuclear program. The seriousness of the United States and Israel in preventing the Islamic Republic from obtaining nuclear weapons has become more prominent.
• Iranian Perspective: An excerpt indicates that the Islamic Republic might be ready to do anything to have the sanctions lifted. However, it seems unlikely that the Islamic Republic will want to make concessions in the shortest possible time in relation to all those combined threats.
• Potential Mediation: There is potential for Saudi Arabia and even Russia to mediate between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic.
• Limited Diplomatic Window: The diplomatic window that Trump has opened will be very limited, perhaps only until the summer. It is unlikely that Trump will allow the Islamic Republic to waste time if it does not intend to negotiate and make the concessions sought by the U.S..
• Consequences of No Deal: If the Islamic Republic does not come to the negotiating table and offer the concessions sought by the U.S., the U.S. and Israel may enter a military phase or make credible and serious military threats against the Islamic Republic.
• Iranian Nuclear Ambitions: Israel believes that Tehran is trying to compensate for its reduced regional influence by producing nuclear weapons. Gideon O’Sarr confirmed that Israel will not allow the Islamic Republic to obtain nuclear weapons.
• B-52 Bomber Flights: The United States Air Force sent B-52H bombers to the Middle East, which could be seen as a signal to the Islamic Republic regarding America’s determination to confront a military attack on the nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic.

Lebanon’s Government: Challenges, Composition, and Hezbollah’s Influence

The Lebanese government faces significant internal and external crises. Here’s a summary of the key points regarding Lebanon’s government:

• External Pressures: The Lebanese government is dealing with the issue of Israel’s presence in southern Lebanon and is trying to ensure Israel withdraws on time through political and diplomatic efforts.
• Internal Challenges with Hezbollah: The Lebanese government is trying to reduce Hezbollah’s influence. The current Lebanese government, unlike previous ones, does not include any Hezbollah members, which is an unprecedented development.
• Government Composition: Joseph Onn was elected as the country’s president, and Nawaf Salam was elected as the prime minister despite Hezbollah’s opposition. The current cabinet does not include any Hezbollah members, preventing them from vetoing important decisions.
• U.S. Influence: The U.S. has been দ্রুত in opposing Hezbollah’s presence in the Lebanese government, with the U.S. administration stating that a strong Lebanese government that can depose Hezbollah is its goal.
• Recent Clashes: Recent clashes around Beirut’s Rafik Hariri Airport and the ban on flights to Lebanon are signs of Hezbollah’s increasing predicament.
• Saudi Arabia’s Support: Saudi Arabia is supporting the Lebanese government in dealing with protesters, which is indicative of a new balance of power in Lebanon that is not favorable for Iran, Hezbollah’s main supporter.
• Efforts to Separate Shiite Identity from Hezbollah: The Lebanese government is trying to separate the Shiite community from Hezbollah, as millions of Shiites live in Lebanon, and the government aims to create a new Shiite movement that is not subordinate to a foreign country and wants to integrate with other Lebanese groups.
• Hezbollah’s Revival Efforts: Hezbollah is planning a grand event to announce its revival, but the Lebanese government has closed an air route that was allegedly used to transport money and weapons to them.

Dehdasht Protests: Anti-Government Unrest, Arrests, and Media Response

Here’s what the sources say about the Dehdasht protests:

• Protests and Slogans: Protests occurred in Dehdasht, with citizens chanting anti-government slogans. These protests followed a pattern seen in many parts of the country.
• Timing: The Dehdasht protests began on the evening of the 2nd of Bahman and continued for at least four nights.
• Media Coverage and Government Response: Initially, the Islamic Republic’s media denied the occurrence of the Dehdasht protests. Later, the Fars News Agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported the arrest of individuals described as leaders and ringleaders of the protests. However, this report did not explicitly acknowledge that protests had taken place, instead claiming that the arrested individuals intended to carry out sabotage.
• Contradictory Statements: There have been contradictory statements regarding the Dehdasht protests. While the Fars News Agency reported arrests, the provincial police chief denied that any gathering had occurred.
• Arrests and Violence: Reports and images indicate that direct shooting was carried out against protesting citizens. Human rights media have published the names of at least 25 people reportedly arrested in Dehdasht by the IRGC Intelligence Organization and the Ministry of Intelligence. The arrests were accompanied by violence.
• Security Atmosphere: A security atmosphere prevails in Dehdasht following the protests.
• Past Activism: Dehdasht was also an active city in the Women’s Uprising of Freedom protests, during which at least two people were killed.
• Allegations Against News: There are claims that certain media outlets undermine Prince Reza Pahlavi, attacking those around him with unsubstantiated claims.

US-Russia Negotiations on Ukraine: A Summary of Perspectives

Here’s what the sources say about the Ukraine war:

• US-Russia Negotiations: The U.S. and Russia are holding negotiations in Riyadh regarding the war in Ukraine. These negotiations are occurring without the presence of Kiev or European countries.
• US Representatives: Mark Rubio, along with the National Security Advisor and the US Special Envoy for the Middle East, will meet with Russian representatives.
• Zelensky’s Stance: Zelensky has stated that Ukraine does not recognize the US-Russia negotiations.
• European Response: An emergency meeting of European leaders began in Paris. They are determining their next steps and how to have a foothold in the negotiations between the U.S. and Russia.
• Trump’s Perspective: Donald Trump believes that both sides consider the war to be over and will probably meet with Putin soon.
• American Press: Headlines in the American press are full of ambiguities. Bloomberg reports that Zelensky considers talks without Ukraine to be dangerous. The Wall Street Journal notes that Trump is rewriting transatlantic relations.
• Kremlin Confirmation: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has confirmed that representatives from the Russian Federation will be present at the negotiations.
• US Explanation to Zelensky: Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kluge, told Zelensky that past peace efforts failed because too many parties were involved. Kluge has stated that it is in the interest of Ukraine and Europe to sit out the initial talks between the US and Russia to allow the two countries to work out their differences.
• Jay Dunes’s Speech: Jay Dunes criticized European Union leaders for not defending democracy and for putting the cost of defending Ukraine on American voters and taxpayers. He specifically criticized Germany, which is heading towards elections during a turbulent political atmosphere.

The Original Text

In the first headline tonight with me Nyusha Sarmi B-52 bombers on their way to the Middle East One day after Ruby and Netanyahu’s threatening speech against the Islamic Republic, Khamenei said we are ready to confront serious threats and that my defense is fine Domestic and foreign crisis in Lebanon Israel’s presence and the country’s government’s pressure on Hezbollah after the formation of a cabinet without the presence of members of this group affiliated with the Islamic Republic and Riyadh hosting US-Russian talks on Ukraine without the presence of Kiev Zelensky says we do not recognize the talks Welcome to the first headline Good morning Welcome to the first headline today, Monday’s flight data shows that two US Air Force B-52H bombers departed from the UK’s Fay Ford Air Base, accompanied by at least 4 tanker aircraft, and crossed the Mediterranean Sea towards the Middle East Yesterday, Mark Rubio and Netanyahu emphasized that they will not allow Tehran to obtain nuclear weapons The US Secretary of State today, in response to a question about a possible Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities and Donald Trump’s position on the matter, said that Israel will act based on its national interests Today The Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, also said in a speech that our issue is not a hardware or defense threat, and there is no problem in this regard. The spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry also said that Israel cannot do anything wrong. Threatening others is a gross violation of international law and the UN Charter, and that in relation to a country like the Islamic Republic of Iran, his answer is that he cannot do anything wrong. At the same time, the Israeli Foreign Minister said today that Tehran is trying to compensate for its reduced regional influence by producing nuclear weapons. Gideon O’Sarr confirmed that his country will not allow the Islamic Republic to obtain nuclear weapons. We will examine this and other news during the program with a team of experts and journalists, but first of all, we will go directly to the White House in the US capital. My colleague Samira Karai is there to talk to her more. Samira, after Marco Rubio’s visit to Israel, perhaps it can be said that now we can have a more accurate picture of what both sides, specifically Israel and the United States, have in mind to confront the issue of the Islamic Republic, and specifically if we look at Mr. Wallace, Mr. Trump’s National Security Advisor,’s remarks about the preconditions for negotiations. We know that no preconditions have been officially announced, but Mr. Wallace has raised the point that the Islamic Republic must put aside its entire nuclear program. Let’s look at what Mr. Rubio, the US Secretary of State, said. He also believes that the Islamic Republic must put aside all of its nuclear ambitions altogether, and this could be a prelude to starting negotiations with the Islamic Republic. So what we know now is that Mr. Trump has been saying in recent weeks that he is looking for negotiations, but negotiations will only begin when the Islamic Republic is willing to completely reduce its centrifuges, to completely stop enriching uranium, and this is a condition for these negotiations to take place. On the other hand, we heard that Riyadh and Saudi Arabia are willing to mediate between the United States and the Islamic Republic in order for negotiations to take place. This is also an interesting phenomenon. It is a new phenomenon during the Obama era. Although Saudi Arabia officially welcomed The JCPOA, but it was never interfered with. Obama never asked Saudi Arabia or the countries in the region what they thought about the JCPOA. Now we see that Saudi Arabia is willing to play a role in these negotiations and to support this. So the overall picture is that if Saudi Arabia wants to be involved, if the words of the European diplomat that were made a while ago that the Islamic Republic is ready to do anything to have the sanctions lifted, if we look at all of this in a nutshell, it means that the Islamic Republic must agree to shut down its entire nuclear program. What happened in Libya, for example, and negotiations after that, will probably be the same negotiations in the region. On the other hand, the seriousness of the United States and Israel in not letting the Islamic Republic get its own nuclear weapons has become more prominent than ever. They will not allow the Islamic Republic to do so under any circumstances. The flight of these B- 52Hs could also be noteworthy in these days when we are hearing so much about the Islamic Republic and the nuclear debate. The British take off with the B-52. H-4 is also accompanying them. They are entering the Middle East from Italy. This is also a point of interest. These developments in Nyusha are continuing. We need to see whether they will talk more about the Islamic Republic’s nuclear issue during their trip to Riyadh. Thank you. My colleague Samira Qarai was with us from in front of the White House. But we will continue with Hossein Aghaei, a researcher in international relations and strategic affairs. Mr. Mr. It seems that the countdown has begun for one of the two options that have been discussed in the past few days, negotiations or an attack on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities. If there is an appointment for negotiations, it should be clear in the next week or two. It may be so. However, the diplomatic window that Trump has opened will be very, very limited. I think that the maximum will be this summer at best, and it may not even reach that time. In any case, it is the Islamic Republic that will decide, although there is some talk about mediation from Saudi Arabia or even Russia right now. It seems unlikely that Putin and Trump will hold talks themselves. If the conditions set by the US are somehow in line with the White House’s instructions, which is to eliminate all the combined threats of the Islamic Republic, focusing on the nuclear issue, if that continues, any mediation is also assumed. It seems unlikely that the Islamic Republic will want to make concessions in the shortest possible time in relation to all those combined threats. That is why this makes it more likely that the Trump administration will try, now that Israel has somehow taken away that diplomatic and military support from Washington, they will most likely try to increase military pressure, set deadlines. I think we will see more threats in the rhetoric of American officials, and we will move towards a direction where if the Islamic Republic does not intend to come to the negotiating table anyway, it does not seem likely that Trump will give the Islamic Republic time to negotiate, that he will waste time. If the Islamic Republic does not come to the negotiating table and those concessions sought by the US are not given. It is unlikely that the US and Israel will enter a military phase or before that, they will make credible and serious military threats against the Islamic Republic. Mr. Aghaei, Ali Khamenei spoke again today, but he did not mention negotiations. Instead, he said that our defense is fine, which of course we know could be a response to Donald Trump, who said that it would not be difficult to damage them in terms of defense. How much do you think that with the situation becoming more complicated and the seriousness of Israel and the United States, the Islamic Republic will ultimately reach the deal you are talking about? Come and see me and let me point out that a realistic view shows us that the statements of the Leader of the Islamic Republic regarding the level of military and defense capabilities of the Islamic Republic against serious threats, which I mean by serious threats is probably the same as the possible attack of the United States and Israel, and that the Islamic Republic has absolutely no problems in terms of defense capabilities, according to the Leader of the Islamic Republic. These are primarily misleading, incorrect, contrary to the facts on the ground, and in a way, it has more domestic consumption, and in a way, the Islamic Republic, I think, is more afraid of the factor of decline, meaning that the main source of concern for the Islamic Republic is internal rather than external. They are trying to prevent that collapse factor in some way, and since Trump’s maximum pressure will continue, I think this will cause those trust-denial faults in the main institutions of power among the people in that core, in those layers close to the core, to become more active. In any case, I think that the Islamic Republic, even if it makes a deal, in a short-term game, assuming that it gives big concessions, will be weaker. It will actually lose. And if it makes a deal, well, if it doesn’t make a deal, it will want to enter a confrontation phase, which it will actually lose. And this American action to send and dispatch these B-52 Stratofortress bombers from Britain along with KC- 135 tankers, all of these are signals to the Islamic Republic. Yes, now American and Russian officials are in Saudi Arabia. They want to strengthen deterrence. Trump and Putin may meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming days. They will send these as a deterrent, but at the same time, there is a signal from Washington to the Islamic Republic that America’s determination and will to confront The military attack on the nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic and other targets they are considering is very, very serious. I am very grateful to you, Hossein, a researcher in international relations and strategic affairs, for being with us in Iran. Contradictory statements about the Dehdasht protest rallies continue, while the Kohgilu police commander has completely denied the occurrence of the rally in Dehdasht. The Fars news agency reported the arrest of the leader of the Dehdasht rally, Kandeh, along with several others, by the IRGC Intelligence Organization. Fars claimed that these people intended to carry out what he said were sabotage operations and were handed over to the judicial authorities. Last week, a group of Dehdasht citizens held a protest rally for several consecutive nights and chanted anti-government slogans. At the same time, reports were published about the security situation and the arrest of a number of citizens in this city. In this regard, Masoud Kazemi, a journalist from Munich, joins us. Mr. Kazemi, what do we know about what happened in Dehdasht and why are the comments so strangely contradictory? How can the leader of the rally be arrested? A news agency affiliated with the IRGC say this after that. The judiciary says that there was no gathering at all. Well, the beginning of the Dehdasht protests was symbolic. That is, on the evening of the 2nd of Bahman, which the next day was the 22nd of Bahman, like in many parts of the country, slogans were chanted that night. But the Dehdasht protests continued after that. According to the information we have, at least until the 4th night after that, a large number of citizens took to the streets and chanted anti-government slogans. But from the beginning, the Islamic Republic’s media approach to the incident was denial. That is, you couldn’t find even a short news story about the Dehdasht protests in the domestic media until yesterday, when the Fars News Agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard Corps, announced, as you said, that a number of those who they said were the leaders and ringleaders of the protests were arrested. At the same time, the provincial police chief denied it outright. Of course, the Fars News Agency news report didn’t say that protests had taken place. It said that some leaders were arrested who wanted to carry out sabotage. But the information we have, the images we have, the video that I think IRA International released yesterday, showed that in a Direct shooting was being carried out against protesting citizens, until now, human rights media and those who work for human rights have published the names of at least 25 people who were arrested in this city by the IRGC Intelligence Organization and the Ministry of Intelligence on the 8th. We know that Dehdasht was also an active city in the protests of the Women’s Uprising of Freedom, and at least two people were killed. Pedram Azarnoosh and Behnam Mehdad were killed in the protests and now the arrests. The news indicates that it was accompanied by violence. There is still a security atmosphere. For example, Motahereh Tahereh Motahernia. I apologize that she was arrested. She was also arrested in the 1401 protests. There is a security atmosphere, but the government’s approach is to deny the incident. Apparently, at least up to now. Journalist Masoud Kazemi. Thank you to Munich. Mr. Kazemi. But another issue is the reactions to Prince Reza Pahlavi’s positions at the convergence meeting. Prince Reza Pahlavi’s comments criticizing the slogan “King Reza Pahlavi” not to insult the opposition and not to raise the issue of monarchy or republic at the current stage. There were opponents and supporters of Prince Reza Pahlavi’s meeting last night. With some of the victims and detainees of the nationwide protests of 1401, including Armita Abbasi, we are also discussing this issue here with Hamed Shivan Irad, the first secretary of the Iran Novin Party from Geneva, and Arash Azizi, a writer and historian who joined us from New York. Welcome, Mr. Azizi. It can be seen right now that more moderate groups are welcoming the talks of Prince Reza Pahlavi. I can point to the reformists with a name and tradition in Iran, who I paid for, who welcomed these talks. How much do you think will put more groups on the path with the prince? His talks yesterday at the Munich meeting? Yes, exactly. You mentioned an important point. I saw the same exact lobby groups that we mentioned. I saw at least one or two people. Look, Mr. Pahlavi’s story is clear. Every time he speaks against the extremists around him, every time he criticizes King Reza Pahlavi’s slogan, for example. He criticized the Resurrection Party of his father’s time and said, ” Don’t go around me, I’ll have to name them.” He meant exactly which shops. Every time he moves like this, more people come around him and more people are attracted. However, the problem and contradiction here is that we don’t see this diversity among his main close associates. His main close associates are people like Mr. Etemadi and Mr. Ghasemi Nejad. It is important to name them because you see, these represent a specific political spectrum, and Mr. Pahlavi’s close associates and team do not have that diversity at all. People like Mr. Shabay Rad, whose speech we are hearing now, do not follow Mr. Pahlavi’s position in any way. Mr. Pahlavi says this, but we do not see that approach of attraction in the approach of his colleagues and his close associates. Therefore, this is a film that, unfortunately, has been released. I have one last point to make, Mr. Pallow, there is another important contradiction. He is in They said, “We shouldn’t create a leader now, but we shouldn’t say King,” and all that. But in this very meeting of the parties, whose list I’ve been trying to get for several hours, I won’t declare him as their leader. He said, ” I am the leader of the transition period,” while no one has recognized him in any way, nor have any parties outside the spectrum of parties. As far as I understand, participating in them is all from a very small spectrum. It even seemed that the Constitutional Party of Iran Liberal Democratic Party did not agree with that clause. Of course, I couldn’t understand this clearly. So there is also the issue that Mr. Pahlavi, I just want to say that Mr. Pahlavi, I welcome this action. I think it was good to move in this direction. However, if they want to do this job completely, they should stop claiming a single leadership, try to be an important national figure, a figure who can be a very acceptable figure, and try to create unity among the opponents of the Islamic Republic and get closer to the opponents of the Islamic Republic and not Presenting that anti-union, extremist, and undemocratic path that he criticized, but most of his close associates still follow, Mr. Shibai Rad, I saw in the words of many that the group that was present at the meeting was clearly a group that had previously supported Prince Reza Pahlavi. There were no other groups in that meeting that now approved under the leadership of Prince Reza Pahlavi. How do you see this in addition to Mr. Azizi’s words? Yes, thank you very much. Mr. Azizi’s words were along with following a line that, unfortunately, I must say that in cyberspace, especially in cyberspace, it is a line that is followed by the unknown forces of the Ministry of Intelligence. Now I will explain what it is for. Look, when those who want to undermine and weaken Prince Reza Pahlavi and know that because of his high popularity and the position he holds, they cannot directly attack and attack him, they try to attack those around him with words that have no evidence and are not true, and that The famous saying that he himself is good and his entourage says, one is that the leader of the Shah is Reza Pahlavi and no one else has claimed to be the leader of the revolution. This is number one and number two, instead of talking about how those around him do not agree with the prince’s statements, they should provide examples of where and when this conversation took place. For example, let me mention myself. I am not talking about others. Right now, you can see in cyberspace that a lot of hate has started against me, starting yesterday. While if you are some of those who apparently support Shah Reza Pahlavi, if what you said was true, then I would support them. Yes, yes, I will support them. This means that what you are saying has no evidence whatsoever. We are talking about Shah Reza Pahlavi, not about the mortar. We are talking about other people, other dear friends who are working hard in Iran and are not talking about them. But another important point that you said is that the other opposition forces, I would still like you to support them. It is very important to name who they are. For example, people like you who choose Mousavi as their leader. It means that it should be clear that those political forces that you are talking about are not other groups. I want to return to your question, dear Niyoshi. What groups did you see in this meeting? It was completely diverse. There were groups that might not agree with the leadership of the prince in such a context. There were groups that might strongly agree. There were groups that even said, let’s go ahead and use another title. Incidentally, that diversity itself showed that group. But if what someone meant is groups that have been defending the Islamic Republic until now, or like Mr. Azizi himself, someone like Mousavi who calls Khomeini the criminal, that awake soul, and whose wish is to return to the golden age of the Imam, they are not talking about fever. Because 57 and all those who continue to defend the 57 discourse, in this, if even we accept it, we as political forces are other people. They do not accept the slogan of reformist and fundamentalist. The whole thing has been in the dialogue since 2017. What can I say? It has entered the hearts of the Iranian people. Anyway, I will summarize so that we can get to other discussions. I think that we should talk with examples, name the groups we are talking about. If we want to talk in general, maybe the mind is divided. Yes, they are right that there were no other groups, but which groups were there? Which spectrum is better to talk about? Dear Mr. More importantly, what is it, dear Mr. Just today, Prince Reza Pahlavi tweeted again and said that they welcome other groups to be present in this space? You mentioned those around him. For example, the same Mr. Etemadi that you mentioned was with him. He was probably the one who consulted him about who he wanted to meet. In any case, he is not his political advisor. But another issue that arises is that those who do not accept the leadership of Prince Reza Pahlavi should choose their own leadership or have their own council. Or why is that coalition without Prince Reza? Pahlavi did not last. How do you see this? I think this criticism is 100% wrong. I invite all those who consider themselves republicans, such as Mr. Hamed Esmailiou, friends of various leftist and republican parties, Mr. Mehdi Fatpour, I can name them. Come together, get organized. The time for you to criticize Mr. Pahlavi but not organize yourself, not organize yourself, in fact, not be able to present an alternative leadership is over. And I completely agree with those who say, “We don’t want a leader because we are not a party.” And they don’t understand politics. Apparently, politics without organization, which organization must have a name, now you can call it a leader, you can call it a spokesperson, you can call it a leadership council, but you have to have something. Where in the world is there a party or movement that says, “We don’t want a leader,” and I don’t know. My leader, in your leadership, this is a very bad thing that should be put aside, but Mr. Sheba, let’s bring evidence and examples to this statement. It’s very good. I’m going to name one by one. First, they talk about Mr. Mirsin Mousavi like this. He is a person who has been under siege and demanding the resignation of the Islamic Republic. You must know that Mr. Mousavi has been calling for the convening of a constituent assembly for two or three years. Well, Mr. Pahlavi should say one thing and two things. Wake up, Khomeini. Let me finish my speech. Mr. Pahlavi should come and say this. Sir, I don’t get along with anyone who supports Mr. Mousavi. But not only did he not say this, Mr. Pahlavi praised Ayatollah Montazeri in his recent speech at the American Jewish Anti-Defamation League. Now let me ask you, Mr. Shahbani Rad, do you also praise Ayatollah Montazeri ? Mr. Pahlavi praised Nasroon Sotoudeh. Mr. Sheibani Rad, do you praise Nasrin Sotoudeh? No, Mr. Pahlavi completely accepted and criticized the tortures of SAVAK during his father’s time and condemned the Rastakhiz Party. Mr. Sheibani Rad, do you approve of the tortures of SAVAK and express your disgust for them and condemn the Rastakhiz Party ? Mr. Pahlavi of the Green Movement spoke with a completely positive approach, both at that time and in the years that followed. Mr. Shabd, do you do this or not? I can say by tomorrow morning that Mr. Pahlavi himself always speaks as a liberal democrat, but those around him, like Mr. Shebin Rad, like Mr. Kiani, like others, are actually in the right position. I will also say one more thing. Just two days ago, I had a debate and actually a conversation with Mr. Kiani in Washington. Mr. Kiani said that while they are from his party, they are from the New Iran Party. He said that he considers the main achievement of the past two or three years to be polarization, and that polarization is between those who are called Iranists, which means They themselves, those around them, and the rest of us, for example, we who are Marxists, specifically the name of H. Of course, Mr. Ezz has another conversation, another story with someone else. I don’t want the discussions to interfere with us trying to answer someone else in this conversation. I am allowed to speak. Kiani, the editor-in-chief of Fereydoun magazine. Mr. Kiani, the editor-in-chief of Nash, is just a face like this. Just say, “Oh, let’s hear Mr. Sham’s words. Let’s listen to Mr. Sham’s speech. Is he against it? Is he against it? Or is he in agreement? Mr. Shabi’s answer. In addition to Mr. Ezair’s answer, we want to address the same differences between the royalists and the pro-prince faction. You yourself mentioned that you have been attacked, and even the prince himself is being criticized. Tell us about that too. Yes, look. I am very happy, very happy, especially for the people who see the scenes where no one can object to Prince Reza Pahlavi himself, the one who is elected as the leader. And I think that the three or four minutes that Mr. People like me, like Alireza Kiani and these people, and we, that we did not claim leadership, yes, no, let me talk, let me talk, we also did not claim leadership, that is, this is very important, and the more important point is that the question is about the future, that is, they ask whether you are or not, they do not say, “You said this somewhere.” This is an important point, so you have no examples so far. You are asking whether you are or not. In any case, I will say, let me talk. If the topic of the program is a carrier of evil, I will answer each and every one of these questions. You think that the program will not answer it, but I will give an example that I want to tell you and all the friends who call the pro-Iranian community the pro-Iranian community, the pro-Iranian movement, that we do not necessarily agree with Shah Zapala in these cases, and this shows the beauty of this movement. Incidentally, we know Prince Dad Pahlavi as the leader of this movement because we know that he is the one who can be that umbrella that covers many groups. When we are a political party, that is, We have a specific political ideology and we are not a partisan like them and their position. When a political party is supposed to be a partisan political party, it is not called a political party. It is a political party with a right-wing liberal ideology that has its name written in its motto. As the first secretary of the party, I can tell you about the New Iran Party why we believe so. But the Mecca is here. The leader of this movement is someone like Princess Reza Pahlavi. He is someone who has a partisan vision and a vision that can challenge other groups. I will just say one final point. Dear Princess Reza Pahlavi, the Renewal Party has also said many times that it fully supports in this regard that anyone, anyone I am talking about, should cross the Islamic Republic and see the entirety of this system as negative and see Bahman 57 as the real thing for Iran. Whoever wants to be, the doors must definitely be open to the nation and the nation must also fight the Islamic Republic. He should also try for the future of Iran, but the name you mentioned, for example Mir Hossein Mesin, I didn’t see him saying, ” Get rid of the Islamic Republic.” Yes, he has passed Seyyed Ali Khamenei, but his life is still alive. Khomeini is an executioner who we all know what he did. There are no exceptions. Yes, anyone who wants to get rid of the Islamic Republic should do so. In the remaining time, there are 10 minutes left. We will consider one minute for each of us to have a summary. Mr. Azizi agrees with some of the words of Shah Reza Pahlavi. He also knows that his role is to get rid of the Islamic Republic and then the situation at the ballot box is clear. Until then, see what your basic problem is. The thing is that you, the set of politicians’ behavior, are always calculating, not just talking. Our problem with Mr. Pahlavi is that I don’t know why he is my leader. Let him not talk. I do not accept Mr. Reza Pahlavi as a leader of the transition period in any way. As an Iranian citizen, I accept him as a political figure. For what reason? I don’t accept it because you see Mr. Shabani Rad saying, “Well, Mr. Pahlavi is a general, but we are a criminal, but we are not.” That’s right, but Mr. Pahlavi is managing this. From among those close to him, he asks for a consultant. There should be at least two people from another faction, but everyone agrees with Mr. Shabani Rad. Then this film has already been broadcast. And Mr. Pahlavi, I will simply tell you this. As an Iranian, you can see that Republican faction, Mr. Pahlavi, all the claims of those from Vahdat and Ittehad are nullified because Mr. Qasem Nejad, who sits next to him, Mr. Etemadi, who sits next to him. Right now, I don’t want to repeat myself, but he is the one who used the word “terrorist” for Iranian journalists abroad. You know, this is political behavior. Mr. Pahlavi cannot play this game, that he himself speaks like the Liberal Democrats, and then he speaks like this, for example, even the supporters of dear Mir Hossein like this. They should clarify their own duties. Mr. Pahlavi says, “What a right-wing sect. My opportunity is very limited. Mr. Sheibani. Why are there no people from other parties with other tendencies in Mr. Pei’s circle of close friends? Those who are close to Prince Pahlavi and are part of his team are not present in any party. They do not do any political activity. Precisely for this reason, Prince Reza Pahlavi and his close friends and the team that works with him are causing a cross-party movement. Mr. Azizi says that other groups, for example, are always interested in saying that they want to be monarchists. Of course, they use the term monarchist, which unfortunately has an offensive connotation in the Iranian political atmosphere. I think that their intention was to insult, but they do not pay attention to the fact that at this very meeting yesterday, a group of Republicans supporting Prince Pahlavi were present. At this very meeting yesterday, there were groups that did not agree that we should include the title of leader, so that those who might not even accept Prince Pahlavi as a leader would not be closed. While I personally strongly oppose this because if I talk about this and finish my speech, when I am not finished, you will see that there is a ship sailing in a stormy sea and we are fighting the monstrous republic of the Islamic Republic that has no mercy. We believe that the helm of this ship should be in the hands of someone and that person is none other than Shah Reza Pahlavi and this is us who I am talking about, including a large majority, perhaps an absolute majority, of Iranian society. You say that no, we are not our leader. Very well, you cannot ask us to let go of the helm, God willing, so that this ship will sail in the storm because you do not accept it or you are the leader and you declare to each other. If we see that in any case, these leaders can form an alliance with each other, have a conversation, talk and guide this ship together, or you sit on the sidelines and try to kick, throw stones, we can bring this ship to shore. We will defeat the Islamic Republic and we will develop and liberate Iran. Thank you both for the detailed discussion. I hope it can be continued at another time. Hamed Sheibani Rad, First Secretary of the Iran Novin Party from Geneva, and Arash Azizi, writer and historian from New York. Thank you both, gentlemen. But in other news, for decades, numerous internal and external crises have become an inseparable part of Lebanon, and of course, the new government of this country, headed by President Joseph O’Neill and Prime Minister Nawab Salam, is no exception to this rule. However, it can be said that the Lebanese government is facing two major external and internal crises. The Israeli issue, which is due to withdraw from southern Lebanon tomorrow, coincident with the end of the 60-day ceasefire with Hezbollah. Earlier, reports had been published that Israel does not intend to evacuate the strategic point in southern Lebanon. Today, the country’s army bombed some Hezbollah positions in eastern Lebanon, just one day after the warning of the Secretary General of Hezbollah. The only responsibility of the Lebanese government at this time is to make its maximum efforts, whether through political pressure and diplomatic communications or other means, to ensure that Israel withdraws on time and then move on. Internally, this crisis also comes back to Hezbollah. The current Lebanese government is trying to reduce Hezbollah’s influence to the lowest possible level. This bold approach began at the same time as Israel shattered Hezbollah’s military capabilities, and perhaps it can be said that it began on the first day of the ceasefire. The first major development in this regard in the Lebanese political arena was the attempt to elect a new president. Joseph Onn was elected as the country’s president after two votes by the Lebanese parliament. The second development was the election of Nawaf Salam as the 53rd prime minister despite Hezbollah’s opposition. But the climax of the story was the formation of the Lebanese cabinet, which this time, unlike previous periods, does not include any Hezbollah members. This unprecedented development was never imagined before. To better understand the story, it is enough to know that Hezbollah and its allies formed a total of 13 ministers in the previous Lebanese cabinet, while in the current government, only the post of minister has been transferred to the Hezbollah United Action Movement. Some decisions of the Lebanese government must be approved by two-thirds of the cabinet members, but the composition of the current cabinet Lebanon is in a situation where Hezbollah will not have the ability to veto important and fundamental decisions, unlike before. Another development has taken place during the 60-day ceasefire period. The formation of the second Trump administration was much faster in opposing Hezbollah, to the point that Morgan Ortagus bluntly declared that Hezbollah’s presence in the government is a US red line. However, it seems that from the current US administration’s perspective, even this reduction in Hezbollah’s weight in Lebanese domestic politics is not enough. Regarding Lebanon, our goal is a strong Lebanese government that can depose Hezbollah. On such a basis, one can understand the root of the recent clashes in Lebanon around Beirut’s Rafik Hariri Airport. The ban on two monthly flights to Lebanon and Hezbollah’s protest against this decision are signs of the group’s increasing predicament. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia’s support for the Lebanese government in dealing with the protesters is another sign of the new balance of power in Lebanon, which will not be good news for the Islamic Republic, the party’s main supporter. Mohammad Javad Akbar, a journalist from Paris, will join us to talk more about this matter. Mr. Akbarin In the midst of these internal and external crises, what kind of Lebanese should we expect after this? Can Hezbollah be left out of the Lebanese political arena for a long time? Good luck. Look, everything depended on the Islamic Republic. These planes that were banned from landing at Beirut International Airport were planes that, according to an announcement that the Secretary General of Hezbollah actually confirmed, the government had been informed that a large amount of money was accompanying these flights. Until now, they have been saying why extend the ban on these flights because of the risk that if money or weapons reach this flow, it will be possible to rebuild it. In the past, the Islamic Republic had access to this flow through land and sea routes in order to deliver weapons and money to them. Now, the land route has been closed. Due to the situation in Syria, the Islamic Republic no longer has the possibility of presence, penetration, or passage through Syria. There were also routes left by sea and by air that are now under strict protection and surveillance when flights are banned or if flights are resumed. This route will also be closed. Therefore, an important event will happen in the next few days. On February 23rd, next Sunday, Hezbollah is going to hold a grand funeral for Nasrallah and Safiadin. They said that even 400 media outlets from around the world are going to be there, and they are going to be hosting guests since two days ago. Well, Hezbollah intends to announce its revival in this program, to announce its resumption. The Islamic Republic’s effort, that is, its role, was to have Israel leave these sensitive points in southern Lebanon tomorrow, which it says are Hezbollah’s points of influence, and then this money was going to be delivered to them so that this grand ceremony could be held immediately after which Hezbollah’s next operations and Hezbollah’s next work could begin. What has happened now is that the Lebanese government closed an air route. Israel said that until my assignment with these five strategic points in the south is determined, I will not leave here. And we still do not have accurate information about whether an agreement and contentment have been reached or not. And third, Hezbollah will not be able to rebuild itself until these obstacles are removed, even though it still insists that The show on February 23rd can be held next Sunday with maximum splendor to see how the next paths will open up. But can you imagine Hezbollah trying to break away from this and continue on its own path without the support of the Islamic Republic? Look, the Lebanese government has done something that practically will not eliminate the Shiite movement. The Shiite movement in Lebanon cannot be eliminated. Millions of Shiites live in Lebanon. Even now, as your detailed report said, Hezbollah does not have a minister in the cabinet, but we have a Shiite in the cabinet who is not a member of the Hezbollah movement. What the new Lebanese government has done is to try to separate the Shiite account from Hezbollah. The quota of the Amal movement is another Lebanese Shiite party, even though it was allied with Hezbollah. Tell them to separate their account so that you can remain, but leave the rest of the Shiites alone. I think we are witnessing the birth of a new Shiite movement in Lebanon, which is neither Hezbollah nor Amal, a Shiite movement that has learned from and no longer wants to be subordinate to a foreign country. At the same time, it wants to blend in with other Lebanese sects so that it can participate in the new era of Lebanon, which is supposed to be an era of development and freedom, and not be excluded. Javad Akbar, this journalist from Paris, came. Thank you. But let’s talk about the US- Russia negotiations on the war in Ukraine, which will be held in Riyadh tomorrow without the presence of Kiev or European countries. US Secretary of State Mark Rubio, along with the National Security Advisor and the US Special Envoy for the Middle East, will meet with Russian representatives. Donald Trump said that both sides consider the war to be over and will probably meet with Putin soon. Today, Zelensky, who traveled to the United Arab Emirates, said that we do not recognize the US-Russia negotiations. At the same time, an emergency meeting of European leaders began in Paris an hour ago. Arash Ali, my colleague from the US Congress, will join us in Washington. Arash, how can you describe the atmosphere? How soon can you say that the end of the Russia-Ukraine war will come? Matt Mossour was a videographer. I had already said on the program that the Trump train is moving very fast, and now the storm that Mr. Jay Dunes unleashed after the Munich Security Conference. The speeches that the Vice President of the United States made in front of the heads of the European Union and many of these people who work in the parliament in Brussels, he addressed them one by one, asked their countries, asked why their countries cannot defend democracy, why each of these countries, Germany, France, named these countries one by one, and why they are now putting more pressure on American voters and taxpayers because they are putting the cost on the shoulders of the United States, and he criticized Germany in particular, and now Germany is heading towards elections during the election period and the political atmosphere is turbulent, while now Mr. Rubio has arrived in Saudi Arabia with Michael Wallace, the national security adviser, and Mr. Steve Whitaker, who is Trump’s representative for Middle East affairs, and now you can see live images of the Elysee Palace, where the leaders of the European Union are meeting behind closed doors and are deciding what their next step should be. The point is, what options does the European Union really have, how does the pyramids want to put pressure now? On America or Russia, in order to have a foothold in the negotiations that are going to take place tomorrow. And if you read the American press, the headlines of most of the press are full of various ambiguities. For example, I’m reading it now from memory. Bloomberg says that Vladimir Zelensky has said that talks without Ukraine are dangerous. Talks between the United States and Russia are very dangerous for Europe. Or the Wall Street Journal says that Mr. Trump is rewriting transatlantic relations, that is, relations between the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean. The main issue is that now Mr. Trump’s advisers and ministers are going to meet with the Russians. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has also confirmed that representatives from the Russian Federation are going to be present. This will be the first stage, so that the two sides can sit down and work out their differences. Mr. Keith Kluge, who is Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, told Zelensky that the last time that efforts for peace did not work out, Mr. Keith Kluge told Zelensky that the reason was that there were too many parties involved. There were so many parties at the table. The issue has become confused, and now Mr. Keith Klatt has said that it is in Ukraine’s interest, in your interest, and in Europe’s interest, to sit this part out for now, let the US and Russia have the initial talks, and then get into the details and maybe be able to have an impact on the negotiations between the US and Russia. My colleague, thank you from the US Congress, Arash. Today we reach the end of the first headline, Monday, February 29, at this moment, until tomorrow at the same level, right here.

By Amjad Izhar
Contact: amjad.izhar@gmail.com
https://amjadizhar.blog

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